The review of the United States Mexico Canada Agreement (USMCA, known in Mexico as TMEC) heads into October with no set date for its next negotiating round and with tariffs on cars, steel and aluminum still unresolved. For companies that export or are part of supply chains into the United States, the message is twofold: the agreement remains in force, but the environment is more uncertain than it was a year ago.

What happened at the July 1 review

On July 1, 2026, the Free Trade Commission held the first six year joint review provided for in article 34.7 of the agreement. Mexico and Canada supported extending its term by 16 years, but the United States said it did not agree to renew it in its current form and opted for separate bilateral negotiations.

The legal consequence is important and worth understanding clearly: the USMCA remains fully in force until July 1, 2036, and from now on the parties enter into annual reviews. The extension can still be confirmed at any time. In other words, there is no termination or withdrawal, but there is an ongoing review that keeps pressure on the open issues.

The bilateral rounds

Mexico and the United States have held three rounds. The third took place in Mexico City from July 21 to 23, 2026, led by Minister of Economy Marcelo Ebrard and U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer. Topics included steel and aluminum, regional supply chains, strategic sectors and the replacement of imports from Asia.

There, the parties agreed to a fourth round in Washington during the first half of September. It did not happen. On September 23, Deputy Minister for Foreign Trade Luis Rosendo Gutiérrez explained that the Chinese president's visit to the United States and the G20 meeting complicated the schedule: "It was preferred to postpone this a little," and he added that the round would be "more in October." He also noted that the United States has raised 90 issues and Mexico 12 priority ones, and that "the negotiation is not being cut off."

On October 1, at the G20 Trade Ministers meeting in Milwaukee, Ebrard met with Greer and described the meeting as productive. As of this writing, there is no official date for the fourth round.

Where tariffs stand

  • Products that comply with the USMCA: about 85% of Mexican exports to the United States enter duty free by proving origin under the agreement.
  • Products that do not meet rules of origin: in July, the United States replaced the previous scheme with one based on Section 301. Ebrard said the measure does not change Mexico's trade position: those goods remain subject to a 10% tariff and products that prove origin under the USMCA remain exempt.
  • Automobiles: Mexico is seeking to reduce the 25% tariff.
  • Steel: Mexico is seeking to reduce the tariff the United States applies to Mexican steel, which according to Publimetro reports on September 3 was 50%.

On September 2, Ebrard met with U.S. Secretary of Commerce Howard Lutnick in Chapel Hill, North Carolina, and argued that Mexico deserves a lower rate for cars, below 15%, given the high U.S. content of vehicles made in Mexico. That issue remains unresolved.

What it means for your company

The difference between paying zero and paying a tariff depends, now more than ever, on being able to prove that your product meets the rules of origin. Companies that export without certifying origin, or that do so with weak files, are the first exposed to any tightening that comes out of the annual reviews.

There is also a contractual effect. Many long term supply agreements with U.S. customers do not address who absorbs a new tariff or a change in rules of origin. With an agreement subject to review every year, that gap becomes a real risk.

Actions we recommend

  1. Audit your rules of origin compliance product by product and confirm that your certifications are backed by supplier documentation.
  2. Review your supply and distribution agreements with U.S. customers and suppliers: price clauses, tariff adjustments, force majeure and termination.
  3. Map inputs from Asia in your supply chain: replacing imports from that region is one of the issues under negotiation.
  4. Follow the fourth round closely and the next annual review to anticipate changes in steel, aluminum and the automotive sector.
CounselHub recommendation: in a scenario of annual reviews, your contracts must state clearly who pays if a tariff or a rule of origin changes. Include price adjustment clauses for trade measures, supplier obligations to provide origin documentation and a renegotiation or exit mechanism. It is much cheaper to agree on it today than to argue about it after a change.

The USMCA is not at risk of disappearing in the short term, but it is at risk of changing piece by piece. Companies with their compliance and contracts in order will be able to adapt without disruption.